Study identifies measles susceptibility as predictor of outbreak size

Researchers analyzed historical measles and demographic data from pre-vaccination England and Wales to model changes in population susceptibility between epidemics. Their findings suggest that the level of susceptibility at the start of an epidemic year can predict the size of the subsequent outbreak, indicating a potential method for forecasting measles outbreaks one year in advance. This approach requires further refinement for application in modern surveillance systems.

Originally published by gnews